statistics, only the 1918 and 2004 teams brought the championship home to Boston. How does that factor into the analysis? This example should provide an idea of how to conduct a relativity argument for teams. (By the way, where would the 2007 Red Sox fit in?)
An Inside Pitch
Consider the peak seasons of Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Which one of these three sluggers had the best peak value with regard to home runs?
An Outside Pitch
Compare the career values of the following batting champions: Ty Cobb, Harry Heilmann, Stan Musial and Tony Gwynn.
A Fork Ball
The following pitchers have not yet been elected to the Hall of Fame, but each has more than 250 career victories. Compare their career values: Tommy John, Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, and Jack Morris.
An Intentional Walk
Compare the peak value of the Pittsburgh Pirates teams of 1990, 1991, and 1992. Use the following measures: RS, RA, ERA, BA, OBP, SLG. Which was the best team? These three teams won 96, 98, and 95 games, respectively, easily winning their division. However, all three teams lost in the National League Championship Series. Any ideas why?
Hit and Run
In a 162-game season, does the team that scores the most runs win the pennant? Compare the team peak value for the following teams, given their win-loss record, runs scored, runs allowed, and finish: the 1998 New York Yankees, 2001 Seattle Mariners, and the 2003 Atlanta Braves. What conclusions can you draw?
Inning 3: The Equivalence Coefficient
“What if...?”
This question has fueled baseball discussions for decades. For example, in the 1937 All-Star Game, twenty-seven-year-old Cardinal right-hander Dizzy Dean was hit in the foot by Cleveland outfielder Earl Averill’s line drive, suffering a broken toe. This injury subsequently caused him to alter his pitching motion, and Dean was never the dominant pitching force he had been. What if this had not happened? What would the record book show if Dean’s career had tapered off “naturally”?
Another example can be made by considering the career of Hank Greenberg. The Tiger first baseman was a contemporary of both Jimmie Foxx and Lou Gehrig. (Can you imagine any opposing pitcher facing three more dominant first basemen at any other time in history?) Greenberg drove in 183 runs in 1937 and slugged 58 home runs the following year. He was probably on his way to amassing career numbers which would have approached those of Babe Ruth when in 1941, he appeared in only nineteen games, The next time he suited up was in 1945 when, at the age of 34, he played in 78 games. This was due to the fact that Greenberg responded to the call to serve his country during World War II. One wonders what he would have accomplished had he, like Ted Williams (see below), not missed well over four seasons.
In this chapter we attempt to answer questions related to the two examples just given, by the development of an instrument which we call the equivalence coefficient (EC). Before the advent of sabermetrics, individual pitching statistics were pretty much limited to wins versus losses, winning percentage, earned run average and strikeouts. And individual fielding was usually assessed by computing the number of putouts, assists and errors made by a fielder. While this is no longer the case, there were more hitting statistics than those involving pitching and fielding measures in the past, and the same is true today. It is because of this that we will begin our discussion with batting.
By the very nature of the game of baseball, a team must score at least one run to win a game. No team has ever won a game by the score of 0-0. Hitting has captured the hearts of many fans throughout the years. Imagine seeing the Flying Dutchman, Honus Wagner, scorching a line drive. Picture Stan Musial slashing a double. Watch as Mickey Mantle reaches the ancient green façade at Yankee Stadium. Recall Willie Mays circling the bases. Remember Hank Aaron