Tipping Point: The War With China - the First Salvo (Dan Lenson Novels)
Philippines. West of that, we have an understanding with the Vietnamese.”
    Dan raised his eyebrows. “With Hanoi?”
    “It’s secret, so far. Fuel and basing at Cam Ranh, if the balloon goes up, and intel support. Drone and recon flights out of Kep.
    “The Chinese have never been happy with the situation, especially being kept out of Taiwan. Up to now, they’ve probed, tested, but mostly accepted it. Now Zhang’s lighting the fuze.” Niles clicked to the next screen. Arrows pushed outward from the coast of Asia. They ended in dotted lines that, as Dan hitched his chair closer, enclosed massive areas of the southern seas. “You operated here. Correct? Ten years ago, in USS Gaddis .”
    Rongstad said, “Zhang calls his program ‘restoration.’ Harmless, right? But to the leadership he’s appointed, that means hegemony over the South China Sea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea, based on the cruises of Admiral Zheng He during the Ming Dynasty.”
    Dan tried to look impressed. But none of this was news. There would always be threats. That was the nature of the human beast. Power expanded, until it met the increasing density of some competing power. And along that unstable, trembling fault line, all too often, war. Peace was like health: a temporary condition, maintained only by continued vigilance and lots of exercises.
    Rongstad went on. “Since the Party’s embraced capitalism, but not democracy, it’s basing its claim to rule on nationalistic fervor. We’ve tried to keep the military-to-military relationship going. The SecDef and chairman went to Beijing in January, and invited Zhang to visit the U.S. We even promised him the spy charges were history. So far, no answer.”
    “Do we see war coming?” Dan asked.
    Niles tilted a massive head, and prowled the office like an overweight panther. Outside, past the reinforced glass, clouds rolled, darker and more threatening. It would rain soon. “War? Probably not. Significantly increased pressure? Definitely. So far Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, are sticking with us. We’re coming to an understanding with India. The Vietnamese have always hated the Chinese. Which we should have figured out long ago … But Zhang’s busy too. He’s secured basing rights in Myanmar and Pakistan. What worries us more, though, is rice and wheat.”
    Before Dan had time to frown, the controller clicked. The next screen showed climbing graphs in green, red, blue. “Rice, wheat, and oil stockpiles. Notice how last summer they hockey-sticked up. So far this year, they’ve bought over ten million tons of corn and twelve million tons of wheat, and we’re still uncovering massive rice purchases. They say it’s to ensure stable supplies, but…”
    Dan nodded, feeling a chill. This wasn’t usual. “What are they buying it with?”
    “U.S. long-term debt. At a sizable discount. So the Treasury’s happy.”
    “Unloading debt, which we can nationalize, and taking grain and oil in return,” Rongstad murmured. “Also copper, aluminum, manganese, and tin. And they’ve cut back or restricted access to their own strategic exports—steel, rare earths, tungsten. We had DIA do a historical study. Almost every war we have data for was preceded by a stockpile buildup by the aggressor.”
    The next slide zoomed in to Southeast Asia. Niles spoke to the screen. “Fortunately for us, their balls are hanging down where it’s easy to whack them. The energy corridors, from the Gulf, across the Indian Ocean, and into the South China Sea.” Dan noted islands or bases hopscotched through the narrow seas: the Spratly Islands, the Paracels, Kra, the Cocos, Myanmar, Bangladesh.
    “Mahan,” he said.
    “Not coaling stations, but the same idea. The big difference is that their allies are developing states, going along for the money. Or because they’re already on our shit list for being dictatorships. While our allies have major regional navies of their own, especially India and

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